Why Drought Keeps Returning to the Horn of Africa

 

Every few years, headlines announce devastating droughts in the Horn of Africa. Crops fail, livestock die, millions require humanitarian assistance, and governments appeal for international aid. However, why do droughts continue to return? Is it simply bad luck, or are deeper environmental, economic, and political factors at play?

The Horn of Africa is among the most susceptible areas in the world, with the countries of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda.  Drought has grown from being a local and seasonal farming problem into a worldwide crisis that has significant environmental, social, and economic impacts. It now occurs on about 40% of the world's land surface and is becoming more common and severe, and the area affected has doubled since 1900. More than a third of all disaster-related deaths are caused by drought, and the average economic loss from a drought has more than doubled since 2000. Meanwhile, agriculture, which uses approximately 70% of the world's freshwater withdrawals, is under increasing stress, and 62% of the aquifers that have been monitored are still experiencing groundwater depletion. The trends reflect the critical need to invest in drought prevention, which can yield up to US$10 in economic and social benefits for every US$1 of investment.

Between 2021 and 2023, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia experienced a severe drought, resulting in more than 31.9 million individuals being in a state of poverty, hunger, and displacement. That was followed by an above-average rain season in 2023. Multiple failed rains, coupled with exacerbated climatic conditions, have resulted in water scarcity, crop failure, food insecurity, malnutrition, and livestock mortality in wide swaths of the Horn of Africa. While drought is a natural feature of the region's climate, several factors are making these events more frequent and more damaging to millions of lives.

Climate Change Is Increasing Weather Extreme

According to the study published by World Weather Attribution, an academic organisation that has been looking at extreme meteorological events, the southern region of the Horn of Africa, which includes the southern parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and eastern Kenya, experienced below-average rainfall in the past few years. “As one of the world’s most impoverished regions, the Horn of Africa is home to millions of people facing chronic food and water insecurity, malnutrition, and limited access to basic services including infrastructure, healthcare, education, and social welfare,” Droughts, floods, extreme heatwaves, increased storms and rainfall, and sea level rise are part of climate change. Agriculture and pastoralism are livelihoods that are vulnerable in Africa to the effects of climate change – a major challenge to this livelihood.

Rainfall Has Become More Unpredictable

The Horn of Africa depends mainly on two rainy seasons each year:

·       March–May: the main rainy season.

·       October–December: the secondary rainy season.

When one or both rainy seasons fail, crops cannot mature, pasture declines, and water sources dry up. Several recent droughts have been caused by consecutive failed rainy seasons.

In 2023, the eastern Horn of Africa continued to experience extreme rainfall deficits, leading to water shortages, crop failures, and loss of livestock, in line with the fifth consecutive below-average rainfall season in the region. “In June 2022, FEWS NET and other food security agencies warned that the most recent March-April-May (MAM) rains were the worst in 70 years, and a subsequent bel0w-average OND season was likely. That forecast has now been realized, and projections for the upcoming rainy season in MAM 2023 remain grim. The drought situation in Somalia seems to be a vicious circle. Everyone in the community has to fight this battle against hunger.

Conflict and Weak Infrastructure

Despite its strategic geographic location, its rich cultural heritage, and untapped natural resources, the Horn of Africa States region is emblematic of economic dysfunction in the Global South. It is a region that is faced with recurring crises – political instability, splintering and fragmentation, climate change, food insecurity, inadequate infrastructure, weak governance and geopolitical rivalries – which have derailed its economy repeatedly. The problems have not only prevented economic development but also continued to create poverty and humanitarian crises. These interlinked issues and the impact on the lives of millions of people must be explored at a holistic level to understand the economic calamities in the Horn of Africa States region.

Perhaps the most characteristic aspect of the economic troubles in the Horn of Africa States is the political unrest. In countries like Ethiopia and Somalia protracted conflicts have crippled national economies and obstructed development efforts. Ethiopia used to be a promising economic power in Africa, but today it is beset by domestic divisions, including the Tigray uprising, occurring in 2020, and the current Amhara uprising and the longstanding Oromo Liberation Army. The wars have destroyed infrastructure, disrupted trade routes, and resulted in the loss of revenues that could be used for development. Likewise, Somalia's economy has been on the brink of constant crisis since the collapse of its central government in 1991. The ensuing power vacuum enabled warlords, extremist groups such as al-Shabaab, and foreign actors to further fragment the state. Since then, much of the country's economic activity has remained informal, localized, and highly vulnerable to insecurity. The prolonged conflict has not only displaced millions of people but has also discouraged domestic and foreign investment, disrupted markets and public services, and reduced the country's capacity to respond effectively to recurring droughts and other natural disasters. Consequently, government priorities have shifted from long-term development planning to short-term crisis management and dependence on external assistance.

Droughts will remain a recurring feature of the Horn of Africa's climate. However, humanitarian crises are not inevitable and can be prevented. By investing in resilient agriculture, strengthening institutions, improving water management, and integrating climate adaptation into national development strategies, countries in the region can reduce the human and economic costs associated with future droughts.